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600 = 20% -> 900 = 50 % (increase) -> 1200 = 30% (decrease). so we need to find roses count which I know I can sell 100% sure which is the max profit i can make. I will loose profit if customer cannot but due to out of stock, or I waste roses due to no buyer.
- sjc June 23, 2018So now looking to probability of sales, it is between 900 and 1200. Sales increases from 50 to 100% and then comes down to 30% with 900 to 1200. That is 130 (50(100%-50%) + 80 (100%-30%)) percentage of probability of sales.
Now divide 300(1200-900) with 130 and you will get 2.3076 roses of increase in probability.
Now multiple that with 50 (50% left to make sure seller can assure 100% sales on what he buy is the max profit) = 115 which is he away from max profit.
So add 900 to 115 will get you 1115 which is the perfect count of roses which you can buy to sell without wasting roses and also customer going back with out of stock.